Prediction
Ability and the Marketplace as Crystal Ball
by James Wanless
Prediction of
events is a mystery, and always will be;
however, there are websites now where anyone can
bet ("invest") on future events. These markets
are amazingly accurate. Intrade.com, for
example, showed that people who invested in the
last presidential election kept betting on Bush,
even when polls showed Kerry pulling ahead in
October. How about this one for prediction. At
the beginning of December 2003, the U.S.
military's search for Saddam Hussein was going
nowhere. After 8 months, a small group of
unidentified investors suspected that Saddam was
about to be trapped – and made money on their
hunch. These were members of Intrade where you
can buy or sell a contract on everything from
the likelihood of Hillary Clinton being the next
Democratic presidential nominee or to how much
the new summer blockbuster movie will gross on
its opening weekend.
Back to the
Saddam prediction, which went like this.... the
price for Saddam being captured was low and
steady for months. But on Dec. 11, volume
suddenly spiked and the contract leaped. On Dec.
13, Hussein was captured. Those invested on his
capture made a bundle. How does this accuracy of
prediction work? Was it a piece of inside info
about the situation regarding Saddam, or a bit
of inspired guesswork, or even an intuitive
feeling, or all of the above.
It seems to me
that when we put money on something, we are
inclined to be careful and correct. Investors
want as much factual info that can be had. Dean
LeBaron, a pioneer of this kind of "index"
investing, and author of The Wisdom of the
Crowd, believes that this kind of
betting/prediction requires "counterintuitive
thinking." I don't agree. Intuition loves
information! Intuition is simply a feeling that
the information is correct or not. The "wisdom
of the crowd"... Is it true? Provocative stuff,
I say!
ON DULLNESS (7
of Crystals) "Rock bottom is the basis of all
things" The Dullness title of the 7 of Crystals
is the watch-out, red flag quality of losing
curiosity for life and for stubbornly holding
onto fixed beliefs that don't work. The titles
on the Cards are symbols, akin to all the other
picture symbols. It's best not to get too fixed
on the word titles; look to the visual aspect of
the Cards to find other meanings. The Dullness
Card, which is full of rocks and nothing else,
has a very positive message. It can mean to go
back to basics; and can mean to establish and
re-establish your purpose and mission... the
philosopher's stone on which you base your
actions.
With
uncracking belief in your vision and ability,
build the rockbase foundation of success. Hold
to the core values and principles that structure
and support you. Hard as rock, even in life's
tumbles, keep your integrity. Go to the bottom,
the rock bottom, to get to the bottom of things.
Go to the fundamentals and fundament that give
you a rock of ages, a pillar of continuity
within you that holds solid and continuous. Each
stone, like every person, is bumpy and
irregular, nothing spectacular, just whole unto
itself. So, don't stub your toe on another. Walk
lightly with gratitude for the gravity of rock
support and understanding. Look to the stone
within you for wisdom and strength. And Like a
rolling stone forming and reforming, constantly
shape your work by design to reformulate. Sand
to pebble to boulder formation and accretion of
molding together collect contract build tightly
and cohesively.
How are you
solid? What is your inner core of strength? What
is your integrity? What beliefs support you?
What is your purpose? Your mission? And your
structure for doing so? What fundamentals do you
need to return to? What do you want to reform?
What are you bringing together? What shape are
you in? LITTLE STONE: Your Friend for Life Five
years ago, Element published this little book of
mine. Twelve thousand editions were sold that
year. Then Element went out of business, and so
did the book. I recently had a limited number of
this book re-printed. It is in paperbook, not
hardback like the original, and it now comes
with a pouch with the original small granite
stones that inspired the book.
The book,
pouch and little stone costs 12.95 You can read
a review of this book that appears in
Spirituality & Health (The Soul/Body Connection).
(Transmitted
8/28/05)
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